With Constitutional Reform Now on the Horizon, Presidential Hopeful Suu Kyi Must Look for "One Bold Soldier" to Break Ranks

Illustration of Burmese general, done in Autodesk SketchBook Ink, by Kenneth Wong

On the last day of 2013, as Asia gets ready to usher in the new year, Burma's ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) discharges some political fireworks of its own. It plans to propose amendments to the country's 2008 Constitution, drafted and passed under the previous Military Regime ("USDP Announces Surprise Constitutional Amendment Proposal," The Irrawaddy, December 31, 2013). Among the proposed changes are revisions to section 59f, written specifically to bar popular democratic icon Aung San Suu Kyi from running for President.

The section outlines qualifications of the President and Vice Presidents. For Suu Kyi, who was once married to British national Michael Aris (1946-99) and has two sons who are British citizens, the following passage is particularly troublesome:

[He] shall he himself, one of the parents, the spouse, one of the legitimate children or their spouses not owe allegiance to a foreign power, not be subject of a foreign power or citizen of a foreign country. They shall not be persons entitled to enjoy the rights and privileges of a subject of a foreign government or citizen of a foreign country.

If successful, USDP's bid to amend the Constitution could clear a major roadblock for Suu Kyi to become President in the upcoming 2015 Election. But that success depends largely on the the goodwill of the Burmese Army's representatives occupying 25% of the country's national assembly, Pyidaungsu Hluttaw).

Burma's national assembly consists of 664 seats, divided between the 224-seat upper house and 440-seat lower house. Under the 2008 Constitution, amendments to certain sections -- including the problematic 59f -- require

• 25% of the total assembly representatives to be considered;
• more than 75% to be adopted; and 
• a nation-wide referendum with more than 50% approval to pass.

The current majority party USDP holds 336 seats (124 in the upper house, 212 in the lower house). That gives the USDP more than the 166 votes or 25% needed to get the proposal into the assembly. But for the amendment to be adopted with over 75% approval in the assembly, the bill would need the support of not only all the rest of the MPs but also at least one vote controlled by the Military faction.

When commenting on this topic, Suu Kyi sometimes quips that, to be President, she would need the support of at least "one bold soldier." Can she find one such black sheep among the army men holding on to their waning twilight in the country's assembly?

More than two decades ago, when Suu Kyi faced rows of rifle-clad soldiers with the order to shoot, many chose not to. Perhaps they were prevented from pulling the triggers by the memory of Suu Kyi's father General Aung San, founder of the modern Burmese Army. Perhaps it was the content of their character that prompted them to defy their superior's order.

Sometimes, to our own surprise, we are led to our true destiny by a part of us that recognizes and pays homage to principles far nobler than survival and self-preservation. That's the unknown percentage that will decide Suu Kyi's -- and Burma's -- destiny in a little more than a year.