And Then There Were Two: Thein Sein Not Planning to Seek a Second Term

House Speaker Shwe Mann (left) sprinkled water on Suu Kyi (right) during Burmese New Year, 2013. Photo by Lynn Bobo, http://www.facebook.com/lynnbobo

Until last week, many assumed the upcoming election in Burma would be a three-horse race, pitting NLD chairman Aung San Suu Kyi, House Speaker Thura Shwe Mann, and incumbent President Thein Sein against one another. But that may no longer be the case.

In his interview with BBC Burmese, Thein Sein said, "I have no plan whatsoever to run in the election." He cited age and health as reasons for stepping aside. This leaves the contest to Suu Kyi and Shwe Mann, who have recently been behaving a lot more like allies than rivals. (Click here for my English translation of Thein Sein's interview with BBC Burmese.)

In early June, the two appeared at the World Economic Forum together. On Thursday June 6, before a roomful of international business leaders, Suu Kyi tackled the question that she had carefully sidestepped up to this point. As The New York Times reported, she declared, "I want to run for president ... If I pretended that I didn’t want to be president I wouldn’t be honest. And I would rather be honest with my people than otherwise." The following day, Shwe Mann told The Irrawaddy he too aspired to be Burma's next president.

Shwe Mann was even more emphatic when he met the overseas Burmese community in San Francisco on June 16. One of the guests asked, "If someone were to rate you as a presidential candidate, what would be your score?" His reply: "100%." (Here is my report for LinkAsia on Shwe Mann's visit.)

Suu Kyi's first serious hurdle is the Burmese law itself. Drafted and approved in a much criticized referendum under the previous military regime, Burma's current constitution contains several sections written specifically to disqualify the democratic icon with a British spouse (deceased) and children from becoming a presidential candidate. Outlining the qualifications of the Head of State, Chapter III, section 59 (f) states:

shall he himself, one of the parents, the spouse, one of the legitimate children or their spouses not owe allegiance to a foreign power, not be subject of a foreign power or citizen of a foreign country. They shall not be persons entitled to enjoy the rights and privileges of a subject of a foreign government or citizen of a foreign country.

The best ally Suu Kyi can enlist to amend this tailor-made constitutional roadblock happens to be Shwe Mann, her chief rival in the upcoming election. As Speaker of the Lower House, Shwe Mann wields enormous power over the lawmakers.

For Shwe Mann, Suu Kyi's eligibility is a conundrum. A disqualified Suu Kyi will give him the upper hand, but make the election's legitimacy highly questionable in the eyes of the international community. Facilitating Suu Kyi's eligibility goes along way to convince the public and the world of his sincerity and fairness, but diminishes his chances significantly.

For now, the two seem to have adopted a cordial, conciliatory relationship. In San Francisco, Shwe Mann described Suu Kyi as "the daughter of our national leader, General Aung San." He noted she, like him, was working "for the good of the country, for ethnic nationalities, for the public." (Shwe Mann's opening speech at San Francisco State University is captured on video, courtesy of San Francisco-based Shwe Media Group.)

More recently, on July 18 (a day before Martyrs' Day, the anniversary of the assassination of Suu Kyi's father Aung San), Shwe Mann appeared alongside Suu Kyi in Naypyidaw before the press. He observed, "If opposition parties treat each other as enemies, history will repeat itself." He then recounted the dark chapter in post-independence Burma, when political infighting hampered national reconciliation. "Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is NLD party's chief and a representative of a segment of the population," he said. "When dealing with such individuals, should we treat them as enemies? Or friends? If we treat her as enemy, we'll be reverting to the past." (Here is Kamayut Media's video report of Shwe Mann's speech.)

For her part, Suu Kyi said, "If he's truly courageous, he'll allow us to compete on equal footing by making the election fair. I believe the House Speaker will do everything he can." Delivered in her characteristic smile and defiance, her words were both a plea and a dare.

In his BBC Burmese interview, Thein Sein was asked twice to clarify his position, and twice he answered: "I'm not hoping to run in the next term." But he also left himself some room to maneuver in case he changes his mind. "I'll observe the country's condition and the public's desire. I'll have to see--That's all I'm saying," he said.

Union Solidarity and Development Party, the current ruling party, has previously indicated it's open to the possibility of a coalition government with Suu Kyi's NLD, as reported by AP. So a Suu Kyi-Shwe Mann coopetition is not out of the question. But ultimately, Burma can have only one president. Assuming the election is 100% free and fair (and that's a huge assumption), the loser--not the winner--may face the greatest trial of character--to remain gracious in defeat.

BBC Burmese's Interview with Thein Sein, Part I.
BBC Burmese's Interview with Thein Sein, Part II.
My English translation of the interview in full.
My report on Thura Shwe Mann's visit to San Francisco for LinkAsia.